The Extension Line: Rookie Extensions
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The second apron continues to loom large over every aspect of team building. Its next victim is, funny enough, the players who’ve (mostly) played below their market value for the previous three seasons. This new era of team construction has led to players either taking significant discounts compared to previous draft classes or dueling it out in restricted free agency until the team inevitably wins. Now another draft class is staring down the barrel of generational wealth and has to hope it aligns with the team’s payroll.
The 2023 draft class, though it has a generational prospect in Victor Wembanyama, has led to relative disappointment for most teams outside the top four. Though the Hood-Schifinoes and Jordan Hawkins of the world haven’t lived up to expectations given their draft position, this class still has players who have become true gems and outright stars in their archetype. Now is the time to translate that success to the bank statements.
Signed, Sealed, Delivered
Keyonte George
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Contract: 5 yrs/ $157.5 Million
Keyonte, after a breakout year showcasing the shotmaking he showed all the way back in his summer league performances and the playmaking that developed since his rookie year, got the money he wanted, but is it worth it for Utah?
The issue with recent contracts is finding the line between what the market says players like George are worth and what Utah believes he’s worth to the team. With players like George especially, who fall into the archetype of scoring guards who can run an offense but bring very little on defense, they are quickly exposed in playoff scenarios. A good example of this is Tyler Herro. Only a year ago, Herro was an All-Star and helped Miami reach the playoffs despite Jimmy Butler’s refusal to play for Miami before being traded. Despite those accomplishments and a relatively good season last year, aside from injuries, Miami seemed to not even consider extending Herro. Like George, Herro is a scoring guard who lacks the defensive ability to be a lead guy on a championship team.
Besides the fact that a player who has such a clear weakness in his game, George has Darryn Peterson breathing down his neck. Even though he has this extension as a sign of Utah’s trust in him, which to be said, George has been described constantly as a hard-working player in the Utah organization, the clock seems to already be ticking on George’s time as the lead guard in Utah. Though Peterson himself still needs time to become an guard capable of running the offense constantly, he is close enough now to already be a threat to George. The likely scenario for Utah is having George as sort of the ‘bridge’ guard next to Peterson while he likely develops into their long-term lead guard.
No matter how much George excelled last season, this feels like another addition to the overpaid ‘one-way’ guard contracts that have become even harder to get rid of.
Contact Grade: C
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Amen Thompson
The Athletic
Contract: 5 Yrs/ $208 Million
Looking from afar, a player like Amen Thompson, who, while a great player, lacks certain skills (ahem..perimeter shooting) that have become such a sticking point for teams, has also proven enough beyond shooting to understand the logic behind this contract.
Outside of Wembanyama, Amen is the second most proven player in this class and in just three seasons has cemented himself as not only one of the best overall defenders in the NBA, but one of the best young two-way players in the entire association.
The main worry that people will point to constantly with this deal is Thompson’s lack of a jump shot and giving money like that to a player who has shown up to this point to be a non-threat from the three-point line. But while fair, Thompson also has the athleticism and defensive skills that are just not teachable at the highest level. Along with that, perimeter shooting is a far more teachable skill than what skills Amen has shown up to this point.
Though seeing the people this contract is compared to leaves reasonable worry, Amen, compared to Jalen Green especially, has proven to be more of a franchise cornerstone than Green ever showed in his first three seasons on the same team. Green, though having his moments, has lacked the consistency that Amen has brought to Houston.
The worry that should bother more is instead team-wise: how does a team built around Amen and Alperen Sengun find success in the West? While having Kevin Durant, this team’s future is built entirely on Amen and Sengun, and both are great players; that’s when the perimeter shooting and overall ability to be a top guy on a contender come into question.
Contract Grade: B+
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Ausar Thompson
Imagn Images
Contract: 5 Yrs/ $155 Million
In a hopeful effort not to repeat the still-ongoing Jalen Duren negotiations, Detroit made the right choice to sign Ausar sooner rather than later.
The defense up to this point has been too important to Detroit to not view him as a long-term option next to Cade Cunningham. In just this last season, along with Detroit winning 60 games, Ausar finished third in Defensive Player of the Year voting behind Chet Holmgren and Victor Wembanyama. For the future of Detroit, Ausar is similar to what Rudy Gobert has done for Minnesota and Utah. Like Gobert, Thompson could become a player who gives Detroit a floor of good-to-great perimeter defense on his own, with other capable guys around him. The main question with this contract comes from the other side of the ball.
To this point, I’m assuming Ausar won’t become a threat from three anytime soon, but that doesn’t mean he can’t impact Detroit on offense. For example, Dyson Daniels, a similar archetype to Ausar, found a way last year in Atlanta despite a horrendous shooting season to be impactful through his rebounding, passing, and by using his ability as a one-of-one athlete to create advantages driving to the rim. Those traits that help Daniels become a threat offensively, Ausar has displayed as well. The main piece that is most important for Ausar to develop is his passing ability. If that skill becomes a consistent strength that can help Detroit’s constant lack of ball handling around Cunningham.
Ausar has shown more than enough defensively to justify this deal, but the difference between whether it was a necessary overpay or a great deal is determined by Ausar’s growth outside of defense.
Contract Grade: B
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Drawing The Line
Brandon Miller
Associated Press
It’s no coincidence that as soon as Brandon Miller came back from injury was when Charlotte went on their late-season dominance last year. Now, a season later and with one less LaMelo Ball, Brandon Miller all of a sudden has an interrogation-room-level light on him this season.
Besides the injury aspect, Miller has struggled to be a consistent threat near the rim. Issues with strength against others at the rim and low attempts near the hoop have been issues for Miller’s offensive game. On defense, Miller’s lankiness, similar to his finishing ability on offense, leads to him being bodied sometimes by stronger forwards, but he is a fine player defensively. The problem becomes: how does a player who clearly has all-star-level talent but clear deficiencies fit into Charlotte’s future? This is the same team that just traded their offensive engine because of clear issues that couldn't take Charlotte where they desire.
With his clear struggles at certain aspects of the floor, players like that in a league as talented as it is right now leave Miller at a disadvantage. At his best, Miller feels like an incredible third option and a good second option. That being said, there is room for players like Miller, but the room is only getting smaller
Contract Prediction: 5 yrs/ $168 million
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Anthony Black
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As much as prove-it year for Orlando as a franchise, it’s just as much for Anthony Black himself. Similar to Cason Wallace and Scoot Henderson, Black is trying to prove his worth while fighting for a starting role.
During Jalen Suggs’ and Franz Wagner’s injuries throughout the season, Black showed the twitchy-big guard skills that got him all the way into the top 10 of the draft just three years ago. Now this season, he and Jalen Suggs are battling for who’s the long-term option for Orlando. For Black specifically, he has shown last season to be a great fit next to star Paolo Banchero and has improved greatly as a scorer and three-point shooter compared to his first two seasons.
The problem becomes how much that jump gives Orlando urgency to sign him long-term. After the move for Desmond Bane, the combination of Wagner, Banchero, and Bane leaves Orlando in a very tight spot financially, so with all this money tied into your top players, the risk becomes giving Black a massive contract that could cripple the team even further. For Orlando to trust Black enough to potentially put this team in even bigger cap hell, that stretch of two-way play needs to turn from a blip to a sustainable season’s worth of output.
Contract Prediction: Wait Until Next Summer
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Cason Wallace
Mark J. Rebilas/Imagn Images
Only one team seems to have the luxury of a player like Cason Wallace, who is somewhat expendable, but that team is the OKC Thunder. Though Wallace has been a massive catalyst for their dominance over the past three seasons, it seems like Wallace, given their depth, is more likely to be wearing another team’s gear come next year.
With Dort's departure, Wallace seems to be the assumed starter in his place, but even in the playoffs with an injured Jalen Williams, they chose to start Ajay Mitchell and Jared McCain over him. Now with Mitchell back at full strength, along with Alex Caruso and McCain, there’s a logjam, and Wallace feels like the odd one out.
For almost any team, Wallace’s perimeter defense alone is worth more than a mid-level exception contract, but the offense at times has also shown to have potential that, in a new system, could flourish. For OKC, while hurting, it seems like the business of consistent talent flowing through the building, but the positive in a potential move of Wallace is reloading OKC’s ‘war chest’ of draft picks. Like earlier, very few teams would be willing to part with a player like Wallace, but many teams would be willing to part with valuable assets to get Wallace.
Like a couple that knows they’re bad for each other, Wallace and OKC separating might help them with what they need to find further success.
Contract Prediction: Wait Until Next Summer/ Sign-and-Trade
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Brandin Podziemski
Nhat V. Meyer/Bay Area News Group
Despite what social media makes you believe, Brandin Podziemski, an eighteenth overall pick, has been a breath of fresh air for Golden State.
Following the failed ‘two-timelines’ plan with James Wiseman and Jonathan Kuminga, Podziemski brought in a young player who, unlike Golden State’s previous draft selections, fit into Steve Kerr’s system. His rebounding, passing within their offense, and shooting have made him by far the most important player at the moment in the post-Curry era. However, it shouldn’t be equated to his contract.
At his best, Podz is a capable starting guard and has shown to fit well in an incredibly complicated offensive system, but those traits that helped him succeed in this system don’t help establish his ceiling long term. His passing and rebounding are great, but in the moments without Curry, while having bright spots, he hasn’t consistently shown the ability to raise the ceiling of the team.
On a great team, Podz fits perfectly in the role of a Josh-Hart type, a guy who does all the little things the coach loves, but isn’t quite the scoring type. On great teams, players like that always have a role, but on a bad team and with the Warriors’ future still very dire, situations like that can expose their flaws and end up clouding all of his strengths.
Contract Prediction: 4 yrs/ $78 Million
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Scoot Henderson
Bruce Ely / Trail Blazers
You’d think a team with a third-year guard with high expectations going into his contract year would add fewer guards, but that clearly wasn’t Portland’s MO. To call Scoot’s first three years turbulent is putting it mildly. With constant reshuffling of his playing time, injuries, and a lackluster rookie year, in part due to having to be a rookie guard running an NBA offense, Scoot has had moments but hasn’t been able to put it all together in Portland.
Now with Ja Morant added, Jrue Holiday returning for a second year, and Damian Lillard now fully healthy, it’s only a matter of time before Scoot is seen as a non-factor in the future of the team. Even if Portland did become interested in a Scoot extension, outside of the roster confusion, it creates the Deni Avdija of it all will soon come in with his much-needed deal and sink whatever Portland was building around Avdija. So for Scoot, this season is less about finding his role in Portland this season and more about his role in the NBA the next few seasons.
In Portland’s series against San Antonio, Scoot seemed to find success as the off-ball scoring guard next to the more traditional point guard, Jrue Holiday. Over his past two seasons, Scoot has moved from the runner of the entire offense in his rookie season to one of the guys running out to score. The hope needs to be, though, that Portland sees the writing on the wall before Scoot leaves them next season for nothing.
Contract Prediction: Free Agent Next Summer
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Dereck Lively II
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Unlike most of the players on this list, Dereck Lively showed immediately how much of a game-changer he can be for Dallas. The issue over time has become whether he’s even gonna be available to display that impact.
In his rookie year, when Dallas reached the NBA Finals, Lively, behind Daniel Gafford, showed his value as the needed rim-running center that Luka and Dallas could never seem to find, mostly landing on Dwight Powell, and failed to get. Following his rookie season, however, Lively has only played a combined 43 games over the past two years. In that time, Lively’s role has quickly shifted from the finishing piece to a Luka highlight play and has now, more or less due to Luka’s departure, become your run-of-the-mill rim runner.
For Dallas, Lively has already shown what players at this point have often failed to show: their contribution to winning basketball. The hesitation for Dallas’ side coming towards an extension is that Lively, while showing his worth to winning basketball, hasn’t shown his worth to be on the court for those winning basketball game moments. Ideally, Dallas, due to his injury history, can get him on a below-market-value contract, but if not, Lively and Dallas will quickly be at a crossroads.
Contract Prediction: 4 yrs/ $54 Million